Alert Oracle.
Alert win forecasts
Choose a server to see its active alert forecasts.
Experimental estimates. Forecasts appear when enough history is available.
How forecasts are calculated
The same point in time
A 30-minute forecast uses only the first 30 minutes of each old alert. Player history comes only from alerts that finished before that battle started. Final outcomes supply the labels, never the inputs.
Participation and enemy pressure
After ten minutes, forecasts use facility and population changes, recent capture participants, enemies fighting each faction, combat results and the roster’s earlier performance. A complete starting map and enough earlier alerts are required; otherwise historical similarity supplies the forecast. Recorded activity cannot reveal player intent or squad orders.
Measured against a baseline
Past alerts are predicted in chronological order. Compare the result with simply following the server’s earlier faction win rates. A lower Brier score means the estimates were closer to the outcomes.
- Only recorded history is available. Recently observed players are a sample of the battlefield.
- The Oracle does not know squad orders, reinforcements or every player’s location.